Ok, I’m going on the record. Obviously, I WANT McCain to win. So I freely admit to a whole lot of bias. I will also admit to not being any kind of pollster. I’m just a guy with a computer and a blogger account. So what did you pay to get in here?!? Here’s what I think about this election. I think it’s more than obvious that the polls are skewed this year (as in many past years) in order to help drive the election process. I have been saying all year that unless Obama is up by 10-15 points in the polls, he can’t win. This is due to what is called the “Bradley Effect,” named for former Los Angeles mayor Tom Bradley. Bradley lost the 1982 California Governor’s race despite being ahead in the polls. According to Wikipedia, “some white voters give inaccurate polling responses for fear that, by stating their true preference, they will open themselves to criticism of racial motivation.” Understand, these people may or may not be actual racists, they’re just afraid of being judged as racists. In this election during the primaries, Obama was way ahead going into the New Hampshire primaries and lost to Hillary. (I’m still convinced this had less to do with the Bradley Effect and more to do with the inability to poll the voting preferences of people in Massachusetts and New York for the New Hampshire primary, but I digress. . .) The same thing could happen here. A combination of falsely inflated polls and Bradley Effect could combine for a McCain shocker.
So let’s look at today’s polls. The national polls have the race a virtual dead heat right now. So just from that standpoint alone my prediction goes to McCain. But let’s look deeper. I went to RealClearPolitics. com and looked at the most recent state polls. States that are solidly for Obama have him ahead by more than 10 points. Let’s concede those states. That gives Obama 238 electoral votes. If my prediction holds up, that’s all he’ll get. McCain would win with 300, not only a shocking come-from-behind victory but a virtual landslide! If Obama can mange to win even half of the leaning states he has (73 electoral votes), he can win the election with 275 electoral. BTW, 270 are needed to win. It would be a narrow win, but well within reach if the polls are to be believed.
So, for the record, I’m sticking with my original prediction: McCain 300-238.
We are just a few days away and I believe this is a turnout election. That is to say, whoever turns out to vote will win. (Ok, maybe they’re all turnout elections!) But it is important not to be discouraged and go out and vote no matter who you are for. Let the people speak and let their voice be heard and we will see if I am right about these polls.